I Smell a Trap
I’ve Got that Uneasy Feeling
My brothers, you know me by now. You know that I’m a total believer in silver: as money, as a store of value for the common man, as a weapon to gouge the banking dragon in his most vulnerable spot. Yes, there are many great reasons to stack, and there are few stackers out there, who are as hard-core about silver as I am.
Nevertheless, I write what I do today, because I’ve got to let y’all know what has been on my mind over the past few weeks. I believe that one of the reasons that many of you have given me such an enthusiastic reception in the precious metals arena, is that while Ipaint the bullish case for the “poor man’s gold” with as exquisite a brush as I can, I’ve always been painfully honest with all of you about something else, too…
I’ve always told you when I’ve smelled a trap!
This is something that I take very seriously. For whatever reason, many of you come here to gain my perspective in this war against the banking cabal that we’re all in the midst of….for peace, freedom, and to decentralize and disperse the “Money Power” throughout humanity. I’ve always been very forthright about the highs and the lows, the victories, and the Enemy’s attacks. It’s a delicate balance that I believe is necessary for me to remain a fresh and honest voice in our ranks. Well, my warriors, let me unequivocally say this right now:
I smell a trap in gold and silver.
“Aw, come on, don’t say that Watchman, I didn’t wanna hear that man!”
I know, believe me, I know.
Nevertheless, I do.
I know that silver’s the best performing asset so far in 2015, but remember, that’s exactly how it started 2014 as well! After that brief out-performance in 2014, the banking gators took the price down to the river-bottom, for a nice “death roll”.
Look, I want our day to come as much as you do, if not more, but I must bring this up. So let me make the case for a word of caution, as well as a possible monkey-wrench that might derail the banks’ plans.
When we broke through the 16’s in silver, and over 1240 for gold, I was a bit excited in the action, but I’ve been waiting for the last several weeks, to get the answer to just one question:
What are the “commercials” doing in the Comex, paper metals markets?
As Ted Butler, and others have said, the only thing that really matters, price-wise, is whether the banks start to go short all the new longs that are coming in. Unfortunately, we now have our answer, as the past month has seen the banks sell bring in thousands of contracts of short against gold, and tens of thousands against silver. Here, take a look for yourself in this graph, via goldcartsrus.com:
Ouch! Holy guacamole, Batman!
Folks, every, single time you see silver being whacked, every single time you see blood in the streets, and wonder why it happens, just remember this chart: silver is the single, most manipulated, rigged, and perennially murdered item in the entire “commodity sector”.
Silver really is unique in this category, as nothing else usually even comes close. As you can see, the banks have taken their short positions to a place, where, historically, it has meant that there’s a good-sized raid coming.
Remember two things: every short sale position is put on by the banks to cap price(and to cover it at a much lower price), and secondly: this isn’t their current short position, but only a snapshot of their short position as of two Tuesdays ago! If you’re thinking they’ve probably hiked it tens of millions of ounces more since that time, to keep silver exploding to $20 and above(especially after the Greek electoral rebellion against the E.U.), then you’re an astute observer!
That chart says that their short position is roughly 300 million paper ounces in silver!
In gold, it’s just as bad: as the short position there, has continued to climb against all rallies, and now sits at nearly 18 million ounces!
The Only Thing that Could Spoil the Enemy’s Fun
Historically, when the banks have been short nearly 5 months of worth global mining production, it has almost always spelled disaster, with the exceptional case of late 2010, early 2011. That price rise though was unique, as we’ll discuss shortly.
Remember, the banking powers in the “Dragon’s city”, the City of London, are the originally ones behind the silver suppression. So, knowing that, you must realize to what great lengths they’ll go to in order to keep silver in the “lock box”.
I encourage you though, to know hope.
For there is one thing which will stop their games for good.
And that is the City of London(and their co-horts at the Comex), running perilously short on deliverable silver. Remember that price run-up in 2011 that we just mentioned? Many commentators(mistakenly) look back it, and say it was merely this:
You must hear me though, friends: silver was no bubble in 2011!
No sirree, not by a long shot. Silver’s 2011 run-up was a bit unique, in that for the first time ever, silver’s was rising, not due to a flurry of new longs, so much as a frenzied covering of short positions by JP Morgan, due to the first, world-wide, rapidly-spreading shortage of silver. Ted Butler and others, have shown this quite clearly.
You see, the stockpiles of available silver were whooshing out the door, ever since the Financial Crisis of 2008. That crisis awoke something terrifying, in the conscience of investors, something that still terrifies the banks to this day. For ever since that crisis, the demand for silver bullion took off to the heavens, and has never looked back. See for yourself on this chart, from this gentleman here:
As you can see, back in 2011, the “registered” or available silver, actually tumbled from a starting point of well over 100 million ounces, in Comex warehouses, to just over 30 million ounces. In fact, by the end of that run on silver, the number dwindled to 26 million ounces.
What Reversed the Silver Shortage?
The only thing that stopped this run on silver in the month of September, 2011, was the curious timing of the total failure of the bank known as MF Global. It was this firm’s failure, that directly contributed to the interruption of silver deliveries(and actual theft of millions of ounces of silver held on behalf of those clients) that finally alleviated the silver shortage, and reversed this declining warehouse silver trend.
I’ve always firmly believed, that the take-down of MF Global had everything to do with silver. I further believe that the true criticality of the silver situation had arrived, and that some very drastic action had to be undertaken to grab some silver somewhere(anywhere), while stopping some of the imminent deliveries that were scheduled to be made.
“Watchman, you aren’t honestly saying that a bank with a $40 billion dollar market cap was unwound, just to keep silver from exploding, do you?”
That’s precisely what I’m saying, and if you’re the sort to ask that question, then you still have no idea how important controlling silver is to the entire world-wide monetary con.
Let’s take a look at the hard evidence though. Here’s a nifty(must read) article from December 2011, from Barron’s, entitled, “The Silver Rush at MF Global”, with the interesting sub-heading, “
Investors are furious that they can’t get back the gold and silver they stashed with the failed brokerage.”
It’s one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It’s something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.
That, in essence, is what’s happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.
The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold “warehouse receipts” to prove it—they’ll have to forfeit 28% of the value.
That has investors fuming. “Warehouse receipts, like gold bars, are our property, 100%,” contends John Roe, a partner in BTR Trading, a Chicago futures-trading firm. He personally lost several hundred thousand dollars in investments via MF Global; his clients lost even more. “We are a unique class, and instead, the trustee is doing a radical redistribution of property,” he says.
So you see, silver and gold holders, who had allocated receipts for metal, were put into a liquidation pool, and then given a fraction of what they were owed….but in cash, not metal. This was what the banks had to do in order to save their toxic system.
Looking back, the oft-derided campaign of Max Keiser’s, the “Buy Silver, Crash JP Morgan” was probably far more successful than most anyone realizes.
For I believe that the silver stackers fired a bullet at the banks that was lethal. There was a likely victim in that campaign, it just wasn’t JP Morgan!
JP Morgan dodged that bullet, only by using MF Global as a “human shield”.
The “Crash JPM” campaign likely drew real blood, and MF Global, was the victim. Sadly, we didn’t get this guy:
But we sure got this one!
And warriors: that ain’t “nothing”! Believe me. Corzine was about as big of an insider as you could possibly find.
Since that time, I believe that the powers that be have changed their mode of operation, and shifted their sourcing of silver through another venue, when needed.
Hiding the Shortage
The banks made a huge mistake in 2011: they were far too transparent with the developing shortage in silver. Investors the world over, were looking, daily, at the steep cliff dive of Comex warehouses, and….were starting taking larger positions in silver because of it. After all, sharks go where they smell blood.
The next time that a full-on silver shortage was developing, they had to keep that tightness and shortage from showing up in the most looked-for places, like Comex warehouse numbers.
I’ve constantly told my readers, that the only thing that would free the silver price, was the very moment that the banks simply couldn’t deliver it in size, in a timely fashion. In other words, another shortage is what it will take to finally free silver’s price. After all, it did it once before, just a few short years ago. The banks have been able to delay that day, though, by craftily shifting the signs of shortage to other places.
I believe they’re currently doing this through other venues. Remember, I’ve written several articles about why India is the game-changer for silver, and how Indian silver demand will finally break the riggers’ backs. Well, lo and behold, 2014 has closed, and India, has taken in a record tonnage figure of over 7,000 metric tonnes in one year!
This record tonnage however, was only achieved through a buying spree in the last several months.
In the period from September through November, almost half of all of India’s purchases for the year were made! Because of that, I’ve been carefully watching for a huge plunge and off-take in silver to show up somewhere, anywhere, in large silver warehouses around the world.
If there was a steep drop off somewhere, that would be our “tell” that the shortage is, in fact, in danger of becoming a reality once again.
And lo, and behold….we got a steep drop off in silver inventories, in a most curious place!
For since the month of December, the SLV has bled nearly 1,000 tonnes of silver! I first saw this chart via the excellent Ed Steer(who writes the impeccable “Gold and Silver Daily” report).
Notice how the silver inventories in SLV increased substantially throughout the summer, but then stop dead in their tracks around October, and then begin the drop off in December? It’s an interesting development, that’s led folks like Mr. Steer and Mr. Butler to ask, “what’s going on?”.
Well, Steve St. Angelo showcased a GFMS Silver Interim Report several months ago, showing how the City of London, due to Indian silver demand, was running so low on silver inventories, that India was forced to go to other unconventional places to satiate its demand. The article actually names China and Russia as the ones filling the gap for London at that time!
This chart from Koos Jansen shows, that in just that 3 month period of 2014, the City had to ship over 2,300 tonnes to India, or well over 70 million ounces.
This would coincide well with the GFMS report, stating that India was having to go elsewhere to fill its silver needs. Now, Eurostat hasn’t released the figures from December yet, but is this huge drawdown of SLV since December, in any way related to the huge drawdown of LBMA silver stockpiles?
Either way, if true, the LBMA would have to replenish its silver stocks, and fairly soon, or risk losing its historical place as the epicentre for silver storage and delivery, wouldn’t they?
I propose that those reports about silver shortages in London were true, and I propose it’s possible that SLV stockpiles are being used to replenish it.
What if folks like Andrew Maguire are right about the GLD and SLV really being useful for the banks, as a flywheel tool to satiate demand during periods of shortagesd?
What if that 25 million ounces came out of SLV, to replenish London’s dwindling silver stocks?
What if the shortage is so bad at this point, that many of those 25 million ounces skipped London altogether, and just went straight to India(or elsewhere)?
Whatever the truth, it’s unmistakable that there’s a fairly close correlation between the spike in Indian silver demand, the GFMS report of London’s silver shortage, and the near 1,000 tonne dip in silver stocks held at the SLV.
Does correlation always equal causation? No, it doesn’t, and I carefully advise against treating this as an “air-tight” case, it’s not. Hardly. However, the thesis that these could be directly-related, is somewhat plausible, and perhaps bears watching.
In future months, let’s watch Indian demand figures, London silver exports, and SLV movements. We might find some eye-raising items.
I could be totally off base here. This is only a theory, but since there’s a shortage of theories about the SLV plunge…I thought I’d offer one!
I do believe the banks are setting us up for another price dive. Further, I believe the longer it takes for it to occur, the more dramatic it could be.
As Ted Butler has said, the spike in silver helped contribute to the demise of Bear Stearns in 2008. Later on, I believe, that silver indirectly contributed to the demise of MF Global.
What will happen next time silver goes bonkers? How many large banks will go down then?
This is why I’ve always held that the only thing that could spoil their fun, is another silver shortage, akin to the one we saw in 2011, or worse.
When that day comes, don’t expect to necessarily see those dwindling ounce figures show up in the Comex numbers….because, as Ted Butler has said, everyone watches those numbers.
Yet…few folks even bat an eyelash at 25 million ounce drops(during counter-intuitive price movements) in the SLV.
Looking at the action, it appears possible that the olden days of regular, measured movements in the normal bull market could be history for silver and gold.
Rather, at this point, it’s possible that the banks will hold those down until that very last second, when they can no longer hold the worldwide financial and monetary system together. I suspect that time may highly correlate to the time in which they can no longer meet silver or gold deliveries in a timely fashion, either.
They may just “run the clock” all the way down to the last second…..and then, spike the ball at the very end. Who can say?
I could be wrong about a takedown. I’d love to be wrong about that, but I just had to write this, in order to be honest about the situation.
Either way, looking at the daily melt-down of “safe-haven” currencies around the world, stacking silver and gold, is the only logical course of action here, and your only protection against what’s coming. When the reset occurs, you can basically pick your price in silver, but until then, my brothers, be wary. If they attack again, dodge it, parry their blows, and skewer them with more silver purchases.
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